Financial Contingency Planning
The core data in question may warrant caution or caveats with an eye on disbursement routines and prior survey robustness criteria. In the latter case, the implied power test suggest a beta at .95 amidst a weak .10 alpha significance which, under an 84% response on a nation-wide test, would suggest weak size effects, or too heteroskedastic patterns to secure efficient policy multiplier estimates or effective budget allocation. The present report seeks ways of making the most efficient use of patterns and joint distributions to inform meaningful contingency planning while securing high bidding success rates.
In setups involving long-term and large-scale projects or outlays, the investment banker acts as an underwriter that pledges to either buy out or facilitate the sale of the entire issue of municipal bonds, on a best effort basis. Insofar as time matters, and lines of credit aimed at replenishing working capital without facing major idle liquidity overhangs may not be available, the go-between fee could be higher—for the underwriter to expedite the placement while absorbing some of the expected or potential loss in the event of the bond price or market value sagging below the book value following the IPO.
In effect, this amounts to a multi-level contingency scheme of securitization, albeit having little to do with hedging or risk management per se. Since liquidity is key, however, it has to be ensured that the public project is unlikely to confront any major downside scenarios that might question its present value, its timing, or the variability of its net benefit streams.
Among others, community banks or state branching networks could buy into the municipal bond issuance first and foremost. On the one hand, this could boost their profitability (ROA and ROE) or liquidity alongside capital adequacy, as government debt is routinely attached with low to zero risk discount when it comes to the risk-weighted asset denominator of the CAR (capital adequacy ratio). In other words, such assets could be attached with a near-zero risk weight, thus diluting the contingency denominator and securing better CAMELS performance.
On the other hand, these very same community banks would be most interested in lower violence rates or higher political stability—and more stable families or households for that matter. The latter issue has to do with a lesser contingency load as attached to mortgage and insurance planning. As Fig.1 suggests, violent and property criminalization patterns have shown to be complementary and mutually contingent, which implies these domains should be addressed in a systemic manner. With an eye on the revealed historical policy efficiency, however, it remains to be seen whether the exact same programs or budgetary disbursements should be sustained and rolled over. Alternatively, they may well have exhausted the slacks or momentum, with some extra contingencies coming into play, be it with the advent of new technologies (phone and email tapping, “porn revenge,” or cohabitation nuisance to name a few) or shifts in the family models pertaining to degenerate or “hourglass” demographics as characteristic of the aforementioned age group at risk.
At the same time, when it comes to funding centered on human service worker staffs, one should stay wary of the “client profile invariance” stance, which might be prone to one-size-fits-all solutions that are biased toward overstating the initial and incremental outlays without securing the best policy multipliers in the first place.
The longer-term initiatives, notably infrastructure, may have to be financed via bond issuance as part of residual budgeting with grant funding availability or rationing constraints being a contingency facet in its own right. In fact, this could be seen as an instance of creating shared value or public-private partnership, in that major investment banks could be hired to arrange a bond issuance, whether collateralized or otherwise.
This particular mode or means of financing could be subject to a contestant procedure or scheme featuring a host of bidders submitting their “green-field” or sustained proposals. It is crucially important that the respective plans be based on rigorous research without over-inflating the extra outlays into primary surveys that can be substituted for with readily available secondary literature. Although a variety of intermediating schemes could be arranged to facilitate the transfer and disbursement of grant funds according to the deadlines and project-managerial stages, these might work as bottlenecks in their own right. Some further detail will be elaborated on throughout.
Multi-Level Government Financing
Whereas the above channels for MBE improvement or policy making could be seen as select areas for multi-level funding in their own right, bottlenecks or delays at any of these levels could compromise the respective complementarity or interactive effects as the flip side of the contingencies addressed. Put simply, the effective contingency funding plan will have to secure alternative sources to cover any such setbacks with.
On the other hand, the more regular notion of multi-level funding would pertain to the taxonomy of federal, state, and local bidding processes and procedures, with less intense competition and higher odds of landing a grant at lower levels being attached with smaller expected amounts. The MBE approach would suggest that the more urgent programs calling for lesser initial yet more frequent incremental outlays be competed for at municipal levels. In fact, the same goes for the aforementioned complementarity gaps to be bridged in a prompt manner.
At the same time, long-term and large-scale programs for securing full-fledged prevention as well as complementary infrastructure may point to lump-sum bidding, which is more feasible as well as contestant at the state and federal levels. Among other things, some of the institutional premises or contingency channels may have to be spotlighted in areas as diverse as, a violent “tone at the top” pertaining to firearms sales and minority-culture specific traits that may have shaped select patterns of domestic violence that are hard to prevent on the strength of policing or judicial effort alone. In particular, the latter domain could refer to more general surveys while breaking down on control or dummy variables such as age, race, and Hispanic origin versus Spanish-speaking questionnaire design with reference to phrasing sensitivity.
Effects of Taxation
The primary regulatory function of taxation pertains to shaping rather than distorting the incentives or compromising the deliverable being targeted. This layer of efficacy borders on efficiency considerations whenever there is a host of competing projects on hand aimed at about as many alternative objectives. Incentive manipulability as opposed to compatibility could pose a major concern as long as grant-related or otherwise disbursements are channeled and mediated in ways that might be prone to rent seeking. Alternatively, the mechanisms in question ought to minimize the likelihood of setups emerging wherein actual disbursement occurs later than the tax accrual or deferral becomes due.
Apart from identifying the allocation areas or problems to be addressed with whatever short-term disbursement amounts or long-term public expenditures, the respective balanced scorecard aligning objectives and resources would have to be supplemented by one other important layer of budgeting and project management alike. For one thing, any contingency plan will reveal a number of dimensions or parameters informing sensitivity analysis, or causality as well as correlation inter-linkage beyond mere scenario building. On the other hand, all of these could be made part and parcel of any flexible budgeting from the outset, insofar as the controlling or assessment phase builds on an analysis of variances, with respect to efficiency slacks and efficacy gaps.
To begin with, these dual variances will pertain to the efficacy of past programs, insofar as changes in the crime or domestic violence rates could be traced all the way down and back to variation in the respective total expenditures or partial, period-specific disbursements. In fact, the latter detail could allow for closer scrutiny, in that the policy effects could be lagged, and disbursements subject to the policy and political cycle. Not least, unlike in the conventional corporate setup where the costing can be done arbitrarily or reshuffled across a variety of business lines, in the public segment this area is of crucial importance in its own right—as is the accuracy or relevance of the underlying data the budgeting draws and acts upon. In other words, it would be utterly unsatisfactory to just bid for municipal-level grants toward greater policing expenses or infrastructural outlays based on the violence dynamics alone, as the budgeting team will be concerned with locating the incremental, or project-specific cost-benefit trade-offs.
Along these lines, the analysis of variances, or areas revealing the most slacks to be tapped into, naturally informs the MBE (managing-by-exceptions) approach whereby utter relevance is addressed first, with the less pronounced cost-benefits outcomes put aside pending subsequent consideration or funding availability.
It appears that one of the recent FBI studies could posit some natural applications for the approach being proposed. On the one hand, it has surveyed a number of areas pertaining to domestic violence criminalization that could map into immense efficacy improvement at low to no cost. As a starting point, it has been observed that only some 30% of incidents have garnered prosecution case filing. Although the core of the hazard group, referring to the 18-35 age brackets, reveals an upward of 85% presence of child and infant threats as one standalone domain of contingency, only a meager 4% of such cases have been detected for filing purposes.
The study suggested that the institutional pillar of “neighbor watch” could have a flip side the public good is contingent upon, in serving as a major source of eyewitness evidence that could render detention more of an option with the odds going up by another two-thirds. Better yet, profiling the accidents as repeat delinquency could further translate into about four times as likely detention, with effective conviction rates being about half the resultant rate. Since the bulk of such cases are resolved via plea bargains, this source of judicial savings could alone be boosted by unbiased, hard-to-doctor evidence as augmented by photographing options whose cost could be absorbed in a 60% efficacy increment. For the same token, positing the instances of property damage alongside domestic violence as multiple crimes on par with repeat delinquency would further boost the bargaining leverage while expediting the judicial scrutiny.
It is important to appreciate that the aforementioned slacks amount to main or standalone effects, whereas the multiple contingency channels would accrue to their inter-linkage that can be tested rigorously as interactive regression coefficients. Evidently, it has been implicitly assumed that higher odds of conviction or detention could sterilize prior deviant incentives. However, this does not amount to effective prevention which may have institutional or subcultural pillars as its root causes. This domain will be treated at length in the subsequent sections.
Identifying the Sources of Funding
Apart from locating the optimal competitive level at which the right amount of funding could be secured over an appropriate horizon, the aforementioned savings should be deemed as the ultimate source of financing. Needless to say, funding sources and objectives should for one be matched based on relevance as well as jurisdiction. On the other hand, contingency planning and budgeting would call for inter-jurisdictional efforts and sourcing without ushering in any major overlaps of prior screening or posterior monitoring that might boost the agency cost.
Data on funding and violence surveys can reveal some critical overlaps or intertwined domains that could inform the contingency planning analysis in dual ways. On the one hand, domestic violence suggests some complementary patterns that could be acted upon when addressing the key improvement slacks to be captured by the more effective as well as efficient programs. On the other hand, these data on trends and patterns could point to dissipating momentum, which is not at odds with prior incentive reports revealing a moral hazard in how policy-indiscriminate stance might boost the budgets and usher in systematic adverse selection or cross-subsidization.